Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
